摘要：在世界航运大会上众发言人看好散货及集装箱市场的前景。

BUOYANT prospects for the bulk and container shipping markets, especially in China, were laid out by a raft of speakers at the World Shipping (China) summit yesterday.

The forecasts reinforce recent market sentiment that suggests dry and wet bulk charter rates will maintain their strong momentum while liner freight rates continue the rebound seen in the last few weeks.

Leading the bulls was China Ocean Shipping (Group) president Captain Wei Jiafu who believes China’s economic growth will be sustained over the coming years as China continues the shift towards a consumer-based society.

Speaking on the opening day of the summit being held in Shenzhen, he said the move of China’s industrial base towards high-end goods such as mobile phones and electronics, coupled with the relocation of industry from coastal to central and inland provinces, will also drive growth.

He believes that over the next five years China will better manage economic growth and this can help balance out some of the volatility seen in the shipping markets over the last two years.

“Improvements in the foreign trade structure will redress some of the trade imbalance,” he said.

Mirroring earlier comments by other pundits such as investment bank UBS and Pacific Basin’s Richard Hext, Capt Wei expects long term demand to grow for primary products including oil.

He predicts that China will become the world’s second largest oil importer and will need 70 very large crude carriers to handle its oil shipments.

Capt Wei, who is also chairman of the Chinese Shipowners’ Association, said initial demand will be for 15 VLCCs, while the remaining tonnage can be ordered or chartered by operators such as Cosco, China Shipping Development or China Merchants.

Turning to the liner trades, Capt Wei believes the fall in freight rates has been mostly psychological, brought on by fears of overcapacity and falling demand.

Reinforcing Capt Wei’s views about the liner trades were AP Moeller partner Tommy Thomsen and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line) president Hiroyuki Maekawa.

Mr Thomsen, who is also chairman of APM Terminals, believes rates fell following an “over-reaction” to market conditions.

“What will probably happen is a reaction to the over-reaction,” he said and believes the industry will “see rates rising next year”.

Mr Maekawa said Asia-Europe rates fell by about $300 per teu at the start of the year.

There has been some recovery and he thought rates would continue to climb.

He added that the general recovery in the shipping markets, including a recent fall in bunker prices, means K Line will raise its annual earnings forecast next week.

Mr Maekawa believes recurring profit will be better than the Yen57bn ($486m) forecast in August but he refused to be drawn on a more precise figure, citing insider trading rules.

Brighter prospects in the shipping industry were also reinforced by Mitsui OSK Lines deputy chairman Tokinao Hojo, who said the carrier will add up to another 154 vessels over the next three years to take its total fleet to 930 ships by March 2010.

These include 10 car carriers and 27 liquefied natural gas carriers.

But there were also concerns too, with Mr Thomsen calling on China to allow foreign companies to participate in the country’s fast-growing river transport sector and allow overseas lines to transship international cargoes in Chinese ports.

He believes both moves will improve operational efficiencies, especially for Chinese logistics operators.

Mr Thomsen said: “It takes a longer time for a container to be transported from Sichuan province to Shanghai than from Hamburg to Shanghai.”

Taking a more global view, MOL’s Mr Hojo said the industry had to tackle growing congestion in four key areas — the Malacca Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez canal and the Bosporus.

Pointing to the Malacca Strait, he said the volume of VLCC transits would double over the coming years, from 4,200 last year to 8,300 by 2010.

There was also sadness at yesterday’s summit when Mr Hojo profusely apologised for the loss of life caused by the grounding and breaking up of MOL’s capesize 1985-built 197,060 dwt ore carrier Giant Step last month.

Eight crew died while two are still missing. Mr Hojo said he wanted to offer his “deepest condolences to the families of the seafarers”.

“We pray to the Almighty to give the families the courage to bear their losses,” he added.